Payoff at expiry — –
All seven structures — click a row to chart it
Ranked on net EV after the corrected 0.0495% exchange rate and measured slippage. The gate is on credit/σ ≥ 0.9346 — the workbook's POP ≥ 0.65 expressed on one axis. A structure can show positive EV and still not be recommended, because the gate is about whether the premium is worth selling at all, not which shape to sell.
Legs
Click a premium in the chain to sell it, click again to buy it, a third time to drop the leg. Everything recomputes against the same engine the Telegram signal uses — no second implementation to drift.
Payoff — nothing selected
Chain — click to add legs
Volatility smile — implied, both sides
Black–Scholes at zero drift, solved off the parity forward. Calls and puts at the same strike should sit on top of each other; where they separate, one side's quote is stale.
ATM straddle through the session
The price of the at-the-money straddle, minute by minute, from your own bars. This is what you are selling — when it falls through the day with the index still, that is theta arriving.
Chain
Priced at the mid, never at close: a far strike that
did not trade in the last minute carries a stale print. Quotes that are one-sided
or absurdly wide are dropped and counted above rather than guessed at. Bars behind
the rows are open interest, scaled to the largest on screen.
Calibration — modelled POP against realised
Each dot is one structure's whole record. On the diagonal means the model predicts its own hit rate. Above means pessimistic, below means overconfident — and overconfident is the one that costs money.
Realised P&L per unit, recommended trades
Per unit, so a lot-size change cannot flatter or flatten it.